Thursday, October 22, 2009

Recovery? Not yet it ain't...

As expected, job openings is not only a lagging indicator of any economic recovery, but in this case might actually be holding back the recovery. Dow is up (way up), business orders are up, interest rates are down and credit is now easing.

In other words, American businesses seem to be making do after shedding a ton of workers (including hiring some back part-time, without benefits). As we know, however, without consumer discretionary income any recovery will occur (at best) in fits and starts, and it it continues misfiring it might short-circuit the whole thing entirely.

We're paying now for the fact that the housing market carried us through about 8 years of expansion previously, masking many of the growing underbrush that typically would be burned away through much smaller market corrections. I have faith that we'll get through this in the next 2-3 years a stronger economy and country. But let's not make the mistake of thinking this is either the sign of full recovery or the opportunity to try to score political points on the news either way.

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